Locust situation in Madagascar during the third dekad of January, 2011 and a forecast for the next dekad

Heavy rains from a tropical front over the Mozambique Channel brought more moisture to primary breeding and transient locust areas in Madagascar. Many areas, including Manja, Isoanala, Ankomanga, and Bekily, received above normal rain during this period. Locust concentrations were reported in Befandriana, Bekily, Fotadrevo, Vineta, and Fiherenana, covering approximately 8,600 hectares. Medium to dense hopper bands, largely in the third instar stage, were scattered over a dozen to hundreds of square meters within a 50 to 150 meter distance in Befandriana, Bekily, and Fotadrevo. Solitary and transient low to medium density hoppers mixed with immature adults were sighted in close to 15,000 hectares in the northern gregarization areas in Mikea and Manon. Low density immature adults were detected in primary outbreak areas and concentration zones in Manja and Ihosy. Control operations continued during this dekad, with 6,040 hectares sprayed by air. As of January 31st, a total of 8,240 hectares had been treated with pesticides since control operations began on November 28, 2010. A cumulative total of 389 hours and 27 minutes had been logged for the two helicopters since the current campaign began on October 15, 2010. Forecast models indicate that hopper bands and groups, as well as immature adults, will continue to form during the first dekad of February, leading to further gregarization. Control operations will be required against these groups in Bekily, Mikea, around the mouth of Mangoky, in Belomotra, and lowland of Befandriana. Hatching could take place in the lowlands of Tuléar and in the south of the Circus Manambien. Vigilance and preventive interventions remain essential. Logistical preparations are in place to support continued control operations. As of January 31st, pesticide stocks stand at 101,760 liters of Chlorpyrifos 240 ULV, 18,000 liters of Nomolt 50 UL (IGR), and 600 kilograms of GreenMuscle (a biopesticide). Two helicopters are strategically placed in Tuléar and in areas close to where spray operations are carried out. The FAO-CNA team plans to continue aerial spraying and survey operations in Fiherenana and launch barrier treatment in Befandrina, Manombo basin, and Mikea during the first dekad of February.