Malawi Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Annex C

Climate Change Projections. The African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) initiative conducted this assessment in September 2013. The annex is composed of two appendices to previous reports, with Section 1.0 comprising "Appendix A: Historical Climate Summaries" and Section 2.0 comprising "Appendix B: Future Projections." Historical climate summaries for Malawi are presented in the form of climate summary reports for two observation stations: BOLERO and BVUMBWE. The BOLERO climate summary report includes a map showing the location of the observation station. Observed climate data include precipitation and temperature patterns, with precipitation observed to follow a bimodal pattern, with two distinct rainy seasons. The 10th to 90th percentile inter-annual range of precipitation is also presented, indicating variability in rainfall amounts. Temperature data show a slight increase in monthly median climatology over the observed period, with a blue envelope representing the 10th to 90th percentile range of inter-annual variability. The BOLERO climate summary report also presents observed seasonal rainfall patterns, with annual cycles of monthly rainfall and dry spell duration. The report shows that the rainy season typically begins in November and ends in April, with the dry season occurring from May to October. The report also presents observed monthly mean rain day frequency, with the highest frequency occurring during the rainy season. The BVUMBWE climate summary report presents similar data to the BOLERO report, including a map showing the location of the observation station and observed climate data. The report shows that precipitation patterns at BVUMBWE are similar to those at BOLERO, with a bimodal pattern and high variability in rainfall amounts. Temperature data show a slight increase in monthly median climatology over the observed period, with a blue envelope representing the 10th to 90th percentile range of inter-annual variability. Future climate projections for Malawi are presented in Section 2.0 of the annex, which comprises "Appendix B: Future Projections." These projections are based on climate models and indicate that Malawi is likely to experience increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns over the next century. The projections suggest that the rainy season will become shorter and more variable, with increased frequency of extreme rainfall events. The dry season is expected to become longer and hotter, with increased frequency of heat waves. These changes are expected to have significant impacts on agriculture, water resources, and human health in Malawi.