Mapping Mali’s Climate Change Vulnerability

The study used 18 indicators to evaluate the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These components were then combined to produce a map of relative vulnerability within Mali. The results show that vulnerability generally follows a strong north-south pattern, with relatively higher vulnerability toward the north. However, the high adaptive capacity and low sensitivity of larger urban areas, especially Bamako and Sikasso, make them areas of relatively lower vulnerability. Southwestern Mali, the most densely settled agricultural region of the country, has medium to medium-high vulnerability. Combining current vulnerability indicators with indicators of future climate change scenarios suggests that vulnerability will only change modestly by 2030. Results for 2050 suggest a more substantial change, with large areas of northern Mali shifting from medium-high to high vulnerability. The results from this study are appropriate for indicating general areas of relative vulnerability within Mali. However, actual vulnerability likely varies on spatial scales not captured by this assessment. The overall vulnerability index was calculated by combining the three components of vulnerability. However, areas north of 17.2oN latitude were excluded from consideration due to the sparsely populated region and the potential for extreme values to skew results. This exclusion was made to ensure that the results accurately reflect the primary region of interest, which is the remainder of Mali. The study highlights the importance of considering the spatial patterns of vulnerability in the original 18 indicators and components. While the overall index may capture the greatest attention, the richness of the report lies in exploring the spatial patterns of vulnerability. The results of this study have implications for policy decisions and can inform strategies for reducing vulnerability to climate change in Mali.