Measuring Impact of Stabilization Initiatives (MISTI) Task 1: Desk Review of Stabilization Resources and References

International actors have struggled to measure the impact of their stabilization initiatives in conflict-affected environments such as Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Stabilization generally takes place in environments characterized by high levels of violent and/or non-violent conflict. Conflict environments are complex, with conditions that are dynamic, unpredictable, and subject to multiple causes and effects that may compound one another in cycles of violence and destabilization. Effective solutions to these problems require multi-pronged interventions implemented through an iterative process for evaluating and learning from past actions to inform future decisions. Conflict-affected environments hinder efforts to evaluate stabilization initiatives due to the unpredictability and rapid evolution of conditions on the ground. The complexity of the environment creates a scarcity of reliable data, as changes occur more frequently than data collection, and/or the data needed for accurate assessment change rapidly. Complexity is further heightened when different actors intervene to change the environment, and the effects of these interventions interact with each other in ways that are difficult to observe and predict. Despite these challenges, many donors continue to implement various methods for evaluating stabilization efforts and logging valuable lessons learned. This report provides an overview of these evaluation efforts and the lessons they offer for programming stabilization interventions, while offering design principles that should be incorporated into future program evaluations. The first section of this report provides an overview of the characteristics of a complex environment. The second section provides background on stabilization programming, its relationship to counterinsurgency, and its challenges. The third section highlights the specific challenges to evaluating stabilization programs, followed by a fourth section explaining some of the methods and frameworks that have been used in the past or could be used in the future. In conflict-affected environments, the complexity of the environment creates a high level of uncertainty. This complexity is characterized by a high level of uncertainty created by a multitude of factors, including the presence of multiple actors, the interaction of different interventions, and the rapid evolution of conditions on the ground. Effective solutions to these problems require a deep understanding of the environment and the ability to adapt to changing circumstances. The complexity of conflict environments is further compounded by the presence of multiple causes and effects that may interact with each other in complex ways. This complexity creates a high level of uncertainty, making it difficult to predict the outcomes of different interventions. Effective solutions to these problems require a nuanced understanding of the environment and the ability to adapt to changing circumstances. In conflict-affected environments, the scarcity of reliable data is a significant challenge to evaluating stabilization initiatives. The complexity of the environment creates a scarcity of reliable data, as changes occur more frequently than data collection, and/or the data needed for accurate assessment change rapidly. This scarcity of reliable data makes it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of stabilization initiatives and to identify areas for improvement. The report concludes with a proposed way forward for measuring the impact of stabilization initiatives. This way forward emphasizes the importance of establishing baseline data and adequate data sources, incorporating remote observations, and using flexible and mixed-method approaches. It also highlights the need to use theories of change and to link them to an accurate diagnosis of how things work in the environment.