Mixed Method Study: Gender Differentiated Drivers of Violent Extremism in Central Sahel (Sahel CVE Research)

The region has experienced a significant increase in violent attacks linked to militant Islamic groups, resulting in over 2,600 fatalities in 2019 and more than 1.2 million people displaced. More than 10 violent extremist organizations (VEOs) have been identified as actively operating in the region, including jihadist groups and community-based militias. Government forces are also responsible for attacks on the civilian population. Understanding the causes and conditions conducive to VE in the Sahel Region is a key concern for public officials, academics, and stakeholders. Previous research has highlighted several key risk factors for violent extremism in the Central Sahel region, including weak or absent governance, abuses by the security sector, a desire for social status and recognition, and geographic factors. However, most of the literature has only partially examined the issue of gender-specific determinants of VE in the Central Sahel or explored the gender dynamics of VE in the region. The literature review conducted by FHI360 (2020) identified four broad categories of factors that contribute to individual and collective grievances and may fuel extremist views. These categories include weak or absent governance combined with negative experiences of government corruption and injustice, abuses by the security sector (in combination with communities' need for protection), a desire for social status and recognition, especially in contexts of high unemployment and underemployment, and geographic factors. Systematic analyses of the relative weight and significance of these various factors are extremely rare, and empirical evidence on both the direct impact of gender on attitudes towards VE and on the moderating effect of gender on the influence of these individual and contextual factors is extremely scarce. The empirical analysis presented in this study takes advantage of these valuable insights from previous work, incorporating them as inputs in order to conduct a systematic analysis of the determinants of VE in the Central Sahel region. The study aims to quantify the impact of alternative (potential) determinants of radicalization and estimate their relative importance, as well as identify and characterize different segments of the population that vary in their propensity to become radicalized and/or in their susceptibility to different VE drivers. Particular emphasis will be placed on a gendered interpretation of the conclusions drawn from the data, as this is an under-researched area within the VE literature. The study draws on publicly available data sources and variables, including survey data from Afrobarometer and official statistical data. The data sources and variables used to operationalize the determinants of VE for the purposes of hypothesis testing are summarized in the report. The empirical findings about the fundamental drivers of radicalization are presented in Section VI, focusing primarily on the drivers of female radicalization in the three countries under study, namely Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The study's methodological approach is described in non-technical terms in Section IV, and the publicly available data sources and variables used to operationalize the determinants of VE for the purposes of hypothesis testing are summarized in Section V. The Methodological Appendix contains additional technical details and supplementary results complementing the information presented in the study. Based on the results of this quantitative analysis, and following USAID's review, the final section of the quantitative study will identify opportunities for reform and formulate some policy recommendations aimed at undermining the threat of violent extremism in the region.