Model to Estimate Health Insurance Liability for Treatment of HIV/AIDS in Vietnam (2015-2020): Background, Methods, and Results

The project will work with partner countries, including Vietnam, to increase their domestic resources for health, manage those resources more effectively, and make wise purchasing decisions. The project's five-year, $209 million global initiative will increase the use of both primary and priority health services, including HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and reproductive health services. In Vietnam, the project will focus on estimating health insurance liability for the treatment of HIV/AIDS from 2015 to 2020. The model used for this estimation is based on the HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) and takes into account various factors, including the number of people living with HIV/AIDS, the number of people seeking HIV treatment, and the costs associated with treatment. The model also considers sensitivity analyses to account for plausible ranges of selected variables. The results of the model indicate that the estimated insurance liability for the treatment of people living with HIV/AIDS in Vietnam from 2015 to 2020 is approximately 1,300 billion VND (approximately $55 million USD). This liability is projected to increase over the five-year period, with the highest costs incurred in 2018 and 2020. The estimated total costs for treatment of people living with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase over the five-year period, with the highest costs incurred in 2018 and 2020. The model also estimates the costs of antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) by financing agent and year, with the costs increasing over the five-year period. The estimated costs of ARVs are projected to be the highest in 2018 and 2020, with the Government of Vietnam (GoV) and the Vietnam Social Security Agency (VSS) being the primary financing agents. The report provides strong evidence to help the Vietnam Social Security (VSS) prepare the financial resources needed for social health insurance (SHI) to reimburse HIV/AIDS treatment. It also provides estimates of the resources needed from other sources for HIV/AIDS treatment in order to help the Government plan and prepare the resources for these items. The authors would like to thank various individuals and organizations for their support and contributions to the report, including Dr. Pham Luong Son (VSS), Mr. Le Van Kham (MoH), Anh Nguyen Thi Cam (USAID Vietnam), and the CDC. The report is a result of the collaboration between the Health Finance and Governance Project and the Vietnam Authority of HIV/AIDS Control (VAAC), with the support of USAID Vietnam and the CDC. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the financial forecasts for HIV/AIDS treatment in Vietnam from 2015 to 2020, including the estimated insurance liability, total costs, and costs of ARVs. The report is a valuable resource for policymakers, healthcare providers, and other stakeholders involved in the planning and implementation of HIV/AIDS treatment services in Vietnam.