Modeling Terrestrial Ecosystem-service Tradeoffs and Implications for Land Dynamics and Sustainable Livelihoods: The Case of the Northern Lombok Indonesia

The project focused on the Northern Lombok Regency, one of the five Regency-level administrative units that constitute the island of Lombok in the West Nusa Tenggara province, eastern Indonesia. The research area, North Lombok Regency, has a total area of 81,092 ha, with nearly 40 percent covered by forest. The region has three distinct landscapes that support different livelihoods on corresponding altitude ranges. Food crops are primarily cultivated on the arid land between the coastline and lowlands below 400 meters, while the second landscape, mainly woody savanna, is suitable for plantation areas, particularly for shrubby cash crops. Above 600 meters, highland forest dominates, with small-scale cropping and illegal logging/timber extraction still existing. The project employed multiple modeling approaches to simulate land dynamics under different scenario social-spatial settings and map several ecosystem services, assessing service values where possible. The results aimed to inform local stakeholders and provide an objective, scientific framework for exploring how alternative land uses would affect ecosystem service tradeoffs and sustainable local rural development goals. The research project was guided by two major queries: 1) what changes in the landscape architecture (composition and configuration) will emerge along the current land-use and local development trajectory and with Regency-wide policies and incentives for future prospects of sustainable rural development? 2) where and how can sustainable spatial planning and local rural development policies/incentives that may result in win-win outcomes or tradeoffs for ecosystem services be implemented and financed relative to status quo conditions? The project's findings highlighted the importance of incorporating the value of natural capital into land-use and policy decisions. The results showed that tradeoffs exist between carbon storage, land-use management, and financial return from agricultural practices. Places where these tradeoffs may occur could also be spatially identified. The project suggested future workshops for public hearing and participation as a means of recurrent mechanism to balance critical and competing social-ecological interests across stakeholders, institutions, and spatial scales. The research project contributed to policy goals for enhancing local resilience, food security, and diversifying rural economic opportunities. The findings have implications for the ongoing efforts of the United States Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially for Goal 1, 2, 13, and 15, which aim to address some of the most critical social-ecological issues confronting the research region.