Political Economy Analysis of Sokoto State

The assessment seeks to better understand the interests aligned for and against each related area of proposed or needed reform, identify areas where the project can support local reformers or drivers of change in mutual goals, and highlight clear and practical entry points where the project can get leverage and achieve the greatest impact in the local context. Sokoto State government is taking conscious steps to improve public finance management (PFM), as evidenced by engaging citizens in the implementation of the Sokoto State government website and the establishment of consolidated tax and procurement laws. The introduction of State Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Sustainability (SFTAS) by the World Bank across Nigeria has aided the development of knowledge of PFM among the Sokoto State public officials. The development objective of SFTAS - Program-for-Results (PforR) is to strengthen the fiscal transparency, accountability, and sustainability in the participating states by rewarding each state for meeting a particular disbursement-linked indicator (DLI). The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and the Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) were last prepared in 2013, requiring the budget forecasting process to proceed without revenue and expenditure projection. The state is now working on the MTEF 2021 – 2023 as a requirement of SFTAS, and has expressed the desire for assistance to finalize the MTEF. The government reported having a Medium Term Sector Strategy (MTSS), but there was no evidence of this document on investigation by the research team. State Audit reports are done and published on time, and some recommendations are implemented, while the Local Government Audit reports are always late and never published. While Local Government Audit reports are not published, the citizens sometimes pressed for implementation of the recommendations via programs such as the "KUKANA" program on Vision FM Radio. The assessment identifies core challenges and the corresponding relevant drivers of change in Sokoto State. The challenges include governance capacity constraints, financial resource constraints, and sectoral technical capacity constraints. The drivers of change include the introduction of SFTAS, the development of knowledge of PFM among public officials, and the engagement of citizens in the implementation of the Sokoto State government website. The assessment concludes with more detailed entry-points linked to practical recommendations for project intervention at the state or local level. The recommendations include supporting the finalization of the MTEF 2021 – 2023, assisting the government in implementing the SFTAS DLIs, and providing technical assistance to the government in developing a Medium Term Sector Strategy (MTSS).