Religious and Ethnic Minority (REM) Human Rights Information System (HRIS): Considerations for the Design of a REM-Focused Monitoring and Early Warning System (EWS)

The REM unit's priorities include monitoring the human rights of religious and ethnic minorities in the MENA region and developing an EWS to track signs of rising tensions or risk of mass atrocity events. Effective EWSs use a range of quantitative and qualitative analytical approaches to formulate scenarios, predictions, and response options for decision makers. These systems rely on a mix of indicators that can be inputs to further expert analysis to produce findings that are more granular, nuanced, and adapted to specific needs. For example, FEWS NET uses numerous reliable data sets, including from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and market price models, but ultimately issues warnings after country experts review the data and agree on a range of risk for food insecurity in a country. Building an EWS entails many design considerations, including purpose, objectives, users, methodology (data collection and analysis), structures (owners of the data, partners, decision makers), geographic area and level, presentation (how information is communicated and how often), conflict sensitivity, accuracy, and timeliness. These considerations are interlinked, often as trade-offs. For example, a system can have an exhaustive number of indicators that give a more complete, contextual overview but will then have trade-offs related to cost and the resources needed to update, clean, and present data in a timely manner. The EWS assessment team conducted a desk review of 19 EWSs and related systems, including the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum's Early Warning Project (EWP), and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED). The team also conducted six informal qualitative interviews with subject matter experts and MSI's REM HRIS dashboard development team to assess the attributes and effectiveness of existing EWSs. Effective EWSs prioritize the risks most relevant to a specific type of conflict and are designed around trade-offs to deliver specific and pertinent information in a time frame that enables action. To address these trade-offs, effective models cannot capture all aspects of conflict, but rather they seek to fill a specific need to provide decision makers with the data needed to act in ways that prevent or mitigate the impact of violence. For example, in East Africa, CEWARN uses multiple data sources and indicators to capture short- and longer-term risk, from immediate to quarterly and annual intervals. The development of a REM-focused EWS requires careful consideration of the following factors: data collection and analysis, conflict sensitivity, accuracy, and timeliness. The system must be designed to provide actionable information for decision makers at USAID and in other governments, while also being adaptable enough to produce findings that are more granular, nuanced, and adapted to specific needs. The system must also be able to capture short- and longer-term risk, from immediate to quarterly and annual intervals, and provide a range of risk indicators that can be inputs to further expert analysis. Ultimately, the development of a REM-focused EWS is a critical component of USAID's efforts to support REM programming in the MENA region. The system must be designed to provide actionable information for decision makers, while also being adaptable enough to produce findings that are more granular, nuanced, and adapted to specific needs. The system must also be able to capture short- and longer-term risk, from immediate to quarterly and annual intervals, and provide a range of risk indicators that can be inputs to further expert analysis.