Scenario Surveillance Analysis for USAID/Ukraine Monitoring and Learning Support Contract

The country's future development paths are far from certain, with multiple plausible scenarios emerging. Four development paths are analyzed in this report, each representing a different combination of corruption reform and economic growth outcomes. The Post-oligarch Ukraine scenario assumes lower corruption and improved economic growth, while the Clean but poor scenario posits lower corruption and poor economic growth. The Prosperous corruption scenario assumes higher corruption and improved economic growth, and the Isolation nation scenario assumes higher corruption and poor economic growth. These scenarios are operationalized using quantitative measures and scenario parameters, approximating the trends and outcomes described by their largely qualitative assessments. The resulting International Futures (IFs) scenarios represent "macro-level" trends, and country experts should use their qualitative judgments to connect the model's results with events "on-the-ground." The IFs model provides forward-looking, policy-relevant material that frames uncertainty around trends across an array of social, human development, and natural systems. It incorporates over 500 variables related to demographics, economics, agriculture, education, energy, security, international politics, environment, technology, health, and infrastructure. By adjusting scenario parameters, analysts can ask "What if?" and describe the results, unpacking the relationships and interconnectedness within the international system. The scenarios analyzed in this report are based on those previously developed by the Futures Team of the Global Development Lab at USAID, which sought to answer the question of what Ukraine's development trajectory may look like through the year 2025. The analysis is part of a series of reports provided to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through its Ukraine Monitoring and Learning Support platform. The report's findings will be revisited and updated annually, seeking to reflect the impact of recent developments. The USAID/Ukraine Monitoring and Learning Support team will engage with the USAID/Ukraine Mission for feedback on how best to support its scenario surveillance needs, as well as use the information to guide strategic learning in the Mission. Ukraine's future development trajectory is far from certain, with multiple plausible scenarios emerging. The country's ability to achieve its recently-set targets, including those for enhanced agricultural yields, attraction of foreign direct investment, increased spending on research and development, improved health outcomes, gender parity, and reduced corruption, will have significant implications for its future. If the government succeeds in achieving these targets, the compounding benefits for economic growth and society more broadly will be manifold. However, if the government fails, the cost will multiply as fewer objectives are met and more time passes.