Scenarios of land use and land cover change for NW Amazonia: Impact on forest intactness

The initiative aimed to address the drivers of deforestation, including the expansion of pastures and agriculture, and the development of infrastructure such as roads and oil fields. Regional models of land use and land cover change (LULCC) were used to predict and analyze the recent (2007-2016) and future business-as-usual (BAU2030) and two alternative scenarios for 2030 (PAST50_2030 and TECH_2030) of the Colombian Amazon. The models forecast a substantial loss of forests in the BAU2030 scenario, with a projected increase in pastures of 2,012,087 ha (52.4%) and a reduction of intact forests from an average size of fragments of 7,924 ha in 2016 to 1,668 ha in 2030. The PAST50_2030 scenario shows a reduced loss of forest of 1,998,299 ha (4.6%) for 2030, accompanied by an increase of only 362,966 ha of pastures. The TECH_2030 scenario, however, shows a minor reduction of intact forests from an average size of fragments of 7,924 ha in 2016 to 2,397 ha in 2030, and a reduction of pastures by 316,705 ha. The most recent studies of forest loss in the Amazon basin indicate that trends in Brazil do not reflect what is occurring in neighboring countries. New evidence of hotspots of deforestation has emerged in Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia, highlighting the need for critical decisions regarding the conservation and sustainable use of primary forests. Intact forests are natural ecosystems that do not show or only show small proportions of human activity and are large enough to maintain biodiversity. The structure of these forests consists of a heterogeneous mixture of patches in different stages of succession. However, these forests are being highly degraded by changes in land use and are subject to combinations of disturbances such as forest fires, attacks of pests and invasive species. The NW Amazonia has been reported to be one of the most dynamic regions in terms of forest loss and urbanization since the 2000s. The main drivers of deforestation in the region have been identified and follow a combination of factors, including the expansion of pastures and agriculture, and the development of infrastructure such as roads and oil fields. The protection of intact forests is crucial to prevent uncontrolled deforestation and ensure the integrity of the Amazonian ecosystem. The urgent need to find mechanisms to implement effective planning in the region is highlighted, with a focus on reducing deforestation rates and promoting sustainable land use practices.