Southern Africa Energy Program (SAEP) Malawi Route-to-Market (RTM) Analysis

The analysis uses geospatial data and techniques to map population, density, electrification, and road infrastructure data. The RTM analysis is developed using 14 data sets, including administrative data, population density, and road network data. The primary data sets used are the Diva-GIS 2018, MASDAP villages 2018, and WorldPop 2018. These data sets are combined and summarized in a 3-step methodology to develop insights. The first step involves utilizing the nightlight data set to categorize areas with electricity and areas without electricity access. The second step calculates the percentage of population living in electrified areas and the number of households in electrified and unelectrified areas. The third step validates the electrified areas using the proximity to transmission lines. The analysis also identifies the point that is best to use to calculate the driving time and distance to and from Lilongwe, the capital city of Malawi. The village with the highest population density within each geography is chosen for this purpose. The Open Street Maps road network data set is used to assign a driving speed to each road type, and the driving time and distance from major cities to the highest population density village in each geography are calculated. The total population from the WorldPop dataset is summed, and the population density and total number of households are calculated. The total population and number of households are then used to calculate electrification rates and driving time and distance to major cities. The RTM analysis provides a comprehensive analysis of the market potential for solar home system companies in Malawi. The analysis can be customized by each company to focus on the drivers of market potential that are important to them. The output of the analysis is provided in multiple forms, including Excel files and Google Earth KML files. The analysis assumes that 1 household is made up of 5 people, based on the average household size in Malawi. However, the actual household size may vary across different regions and administrative levels. The accuracy of the insights developed from the tool depends on the accuracy and relevance of the data sets incorporated into the tool. The database output can be customized to address a company's specific needs, and the analysis can be used to identify high-potential geographic markets for expansion or market penetration. The RTM analysis provides a valuable tool for solar home system companies to prioritize their market expansion efforts in Malawi. The analysis has several limitations, including the use of outdated data sets and the assumption that 1 household is made up of 5 people. However, the analysis provides a comprehensive analysis of the market potential for solar home system companies in Malawi and can be customized to address a company's specific needs.