USAID-OFDA Global Settlement Implications for Humanitarian Action

Over three billion people now reside in cities, with one billion living in urban slums. This trend is expected to continue, with the global population projected to increase to over eight billion in twenty years, of whom five billion will be living in cities, two billion in slums. The majority of this growth will occur in cities of developing countries. Urban population growth is substantial, with an annual increase of 80 million people, equivalent to the population of Germany. This growth includes an annual increase of 35 million slum dwellers, equivalent to the combined population of Holland and Belgium. The United Nations estimates that only 5 percent of new development in cities is planned, with 70-80 percent of residents living in unplanned areas, often in poorly built slums located in risk-prone areas with poor services. The shortage of trained professionals to manage settlement change exacerbates the problem, particularly in developing countries. The principles guiding understanding of how cities grow have tenuous connections to context, as many theories are rooted in developed countries. This disconnect hinders effective urban planning and management, contributing to the proliferation of unplanned settlements. The implications of these trends for humanitarians are significant. The doubling of urban populations in the coming years will lead to a three-fold increase in urban land area, with much of this expansion occurring in low-lying, risk-prone areas. Urban areas are likely to become the location of future disasters, as disasters and crises accelerate and exacerbate the urbanization process. Urban displacement raises methodological and conceptual issues, including how to define "Harm's Way," how to keep people out of harm's way, and how to reduce risk among those forced to live in these areas. The rapid growth of urban populations and the proliferation of unplanned settlements pose significant challenges for humanitarian action. Effective urban planning and management are essential to mitigate the risks associated with urbanization, including the increased likelihood of disasters and the exacerbation of poverty and economic instability. Humanitarians must adapt their approaches to address the unique challenges of urban settlements, including the need for innovative solutions to reduce risk and improve the lives of those living in these areas.