An Assessment of the Distribution and Abundance of Large Carnivores in the Tarangire-West Kilimanjaro Ecosystem using Spoor Counts

This ecosystem is home to a diverse array of wildlife, including threatened large carnivore species such as lion, leopard, cheetah, and African Wild dog. The area is characterized by highly mobile wildlife populations, which migrate long distances annually in search of food and water. However, the large ungulate populations disperse seasonally in response to rainfall patterns, with key migration routes lying on community lands to the north and east of Tarangire National Park. The Tarangire-West Kilimanjaro ecosystem is comprised of six different locations, including Tarangire National Park, Lake Manyara National Park, Randilen Wildlife Management Area, Enduimet Wildlife Management Area, Manyara Ranch, and the Simanjiro plains. These areas vary in terms of protection status, with the two National Parks enjoying high levels of protection and the Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) being community-managed areas with multiple land uses. The Simanjiro plains, which form the main calving grounds for large ungulates, have no official protection but have been set aside as conservation easements by local communities. A spoor survey was conducted across the Tarangire-West Kilimanjaro ecosystem to assess the distribution and density of six large carnivore species: lion, leopard, cheetah, African Wild dog, Spotted hyaena, and Striped hyaena. The survey used a vehicle-based approach, with expert trackers seated on a custom-made seat at the front of the car to record data on the Cybertracker software. The survey started in the early morning and stopped before 11am, with roads driven slowly at less than 15kph to minimize the impact on the environment. The survey results indicate that the most common large carnivore species across the ecosystem is the Spotted hyaena, followed by the Striped hyaena and leopard. Lion were relatively uncommon and were only recorded in Tarangire National Park and Manyara Ranch. There were very few records of cheetah and African Wild dog, with the latter recorded only once in Tarangire National Park. Density estimates were produced for lion, leopard, and the two hyaena species, with the distribution of both lion and leopard negatively correlated with distance to bomas, suggesting that these species were actively avoiding human presence. Occupancy modelling was used to analyze the relationship between large carnivore occupancy and measures of transect quality, human impact, and site protection status. The results indicate that occupancy was associated with measures of transect quality and human impact, with a negative correlation between occupancy and distance to bomas. The study recommends that more surveys be carried out, including Makame WMA, to establish long-term carnivore population trends and to inform conservation efforts in the Tarangire-West Kilimanjaro ecosystem.