August 2019 Monthly Atmospheric Report

The report notes that the newly-proclaimed Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), carried out a series of attacks on public infrastructure and the Defense Services Technical Academy in five locations in Mandalay Region and Northern Shan State on August 15. The attacks resulted in significant damage to vital transport infrastructure, including the Gote Twin Bridge in Nawngcho Township, and led to hundreds of millions of kyat in damage. The conflict has had severe economic repercussions, with China-Myanmar cross-border trade through the Muse and Chinshwehaw town gates vastly reduced. The total trade value per day at the Muse border trade zone declined from $5 million to less than $700,000, while trade at Chinshwehaw ceased altogether. Efforts are being made to repair the damage and resume trade, but continued unrest in the area makes it unlikely that trade will return to previous levels once the transport infrastructure is restored. The report also notes that the Government condemned the Brotherhood Alliance's "terrorist acts," stating they will have negative consequences for the peace process. However, the Brotherhood Alliance countered that it took action because the Tatmadaw ignored its numerous warnings to stop attacking the AA. The joint attacks by the AA, TNLA, and MNDAA signify a shift from a defensive to an offensive strategy against the Tatmadaw, and demonstrate the fluidity of EAOs' alliances and military potential when they combine military capacity. The report highlights the potential implications of the conflict on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Shan State. Political analyst Maung Maung Soe argues that the recent fighting creates challenges for the rollout of the Chinese Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), as the Muse-Mandalay railway is planned to run through areas controlled by EAOs where fighting is taking place. However, there is no evidence that EAOs are deliberately targeting Chinese infrastructure projects. The Tatmadaw has announced plans to respond to the EAOs' recent joint attacks, and it is likely that fighting in conflict areas will further intensify. The report notes that further collaborative actions or signs of alliance-building by the EAOs should be monitored in the coming months. The conflict has significant implications for the peace process and the economic development of Myanmar, and it is essential to continue monitoring the situation and assessing the potential consequences of the conflict. The report also notes that the Government declared the Ma Ba Tha an illegal organization, a sign that the Government is making some effort to fight extreme Buddhist nationalism ahead of the 2020 general election. Additionally, the report notes that the Union Parliament approved the Charter Amendment Committee's report on proposed constitutional reforms, which continue to be debated by members of parliament. The report highlights the challenges facing the Government in addressing the conflict and promoting economic development in Myanmar. The conflict has significant implications for the peace process and the economic development of the country, and it is essential to continue monitoring the situation and assessing the potential consequences of the conflict.