Special Atmospheric Report: Seven Months in Review and Future Trends to Watch

The value of total FDI approvals halved from 2015 to 2018, with a few large projects causing notable changes in annual FDI approval levels. Singapore is the largest investor in Myanmar, followed by China, but investment by third countries is often channeled through Singapore, making China the largest investor. The Rohingya crisis has increased investor country risk calculations, leading to future investment to move from the West to the East. Myanmar's infrastructure development is heavily influenced by its relationship with China, with the Chinese Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) playing a significant role. The CMEC is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Myanmar, and it has led to the implementation of major infrastructure projects, including the Myitsone Dam, the Mandalay-Mandalay railway link, the Kyaukphyu Port, and New Yangon City. The Myitsone Dam is a contentious issue, with widespread anger among affected communities and environmental concerns. The dam's future is uncertain, with a final decision expected in 2019, which could define the NLD's first term in office. The economy is expected to grow, but at a slower pace, with inflation falling between six and seven percent. The government has implemented some economic reforms, but more are needed to address the country's economic challenges. The IMF has reported that Myanmar's economy is losing momentum, with declines in FDI and tourism. The government needs to implement stronger banking and investment reform to address these challenges and ensure the economy grows at a stable pace. The conflict in Rakhine State has increased in intensity over the past seven months, with the Arakan Army (AA) fighting for ethnic Rakhine equality and rights. The conflict is expected to continue in the coming months, with no durable solution for the Rohingya crisis in Cox's Bazaar. The AA's demands for greater autonomy and equality have been met with resistance from the military, leading to increased tensions in the region. The NLD's popularity in ethnic areas is waning, but the party is still expected to enjoy a comfortable position in the lead-up to the 2020 elections. The NLD's approach to ethnic issues has been criticized for being Bamar-centric, and the party is expected to face challenges in winning the support of ethnic minorities. The USDP is quietly recruiting ethnic minorities as potential parliamentary candidates, which could lead to a more diverse parliament. The NLD's leadership is expected to face challenges in the coming months, with Aung San Suu Kyi's role in the government being a major concern. Suu Kyi has been criticized for her handling of the Rohingya crisis and her relationship with the military. The NLD's leadership is expected to face pressure from the military and other parties to address these issues and ensure the party's success in the 2020 elections. The economy is expected to continue growing, but at a slower pace, due to declining FDI and tourism. The government needs to implement stronger banking and investment reform to address these challenges and ensure the economy grows at a stable pace. The conflict in Rakhine State is expected to continue, with no durable solution for the Rohingya crisis in Cox's Bazaar. The NLD's popularity in ethnic areas is waning, but the party is still expected to enjoy a comfortable position in the lead-up to the 2020 elections.