May 2019 Monthly Atmospheric Report

The announcement came after the Tatmadaw met with Northern Alliance members. Most analysts believe the Tatmadaw extended the ceasefire to concentrate on fighting the Arakan Army in Rakhine State. Fighting between the Arakan Army and the Tatmadaw moved further south to Ann Township in Rakhine State. While investment in the state is concentrated in southern Rakhine, fighting in central Rakhine is worrisome for the Government's plans for development in the state. Conflict resurged in two northern townships in Sagaing State as the Tatmadaw and Indian armed forces united to carry out offensives against the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K). This month, active conflict declined in Shan State, which is attributed to the extension of the Tatmadaw ceasefire and a bilateral peace agreement between the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS). The Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and the Restoration Council of Shan State agreed to stop fighting and pursue a peace agreement. The USDP submitted four additional proposals to amend the constitution. The proposed amendments focus on decentralization and will likely be sent to the Constitutional Amendment Committee for review. Three agreements were signed by the Myanmar and Chinese governments following Aung San Suu Kyi's attendance of the Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing last month. The agreements are considered relatively non-committal and did not focus on the more controversial China-Myanmar Economic Corridor projects. Buddhist nationalists forcefully shut down three residential buildings in Yangon that had official permits to serve as temporary places of worship for Muslims during Ramadan. The local authorities' initial inadequate response to the nationalists was followed by a "White Rose Campaign" led by Buddhists as a sign of solidarity with the Muslim worshippers. An arrest warrant for Buddhist monk and nationalist, Ashin Wirathu, was issued after he made incendiary comments, including insulting Aung San Suu Kyi, at a rally in April. The Reuters journalists, Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, received a presidential pardon on May 7, two weeks after their final appeal was rejected by the Supreme Court, but the pardon is not considered a sign that the Myanmar Government is loosening its control over the press in Myanmar. The Tatmadaw's motivations for extending the ceasefire remain unclear. The extension could indicate a genuine desire for progress towards peace by the Tatmadaw, and its willingness to meet with the Northern Alliance groups to reach an agreement through negotiation. However, many analysts view the extension to be a strategy by the Tatmadaw to avoid fighting on multiple fronts in order to concentrate its efforts in Rakhine, as suspected with the announcement of the original ceasefire. The extension of the ceasefire is unlikely to significantly decrease conflict in Myanmar because it excludes Rakhine, where fighting continued throughout the month.