January 2019 Monthly Atmospheric Report

The AA launched attacks on Myanmar border police posts, resulting in the displacement of 5,000 civilians. The conflict has also led to restrictions on nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in conflict-affected townships in Rakhine State, hampering the distribution of humanitarian relief aid. The Myitsone Dam, a dam project opposed by local parties, including environmentalists, humanitarian organizations, and local leaders, is being pushed forward by China as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. The dam's construction is expected to have significant environmental and social impacts on the local population. The government's intent to reform the constitution is seen as a way to garner support for the ruling party ahead of the 2020 national elections. The closure of a border gate in Muse Township in Shan State had a significant impact on trade between China and Myanmar in early January. Trade has since resumed, but the incident highlights the vulnerability of the Myanmar economy to domestic government orders and internal conflict. Rice exports from Myanmar decreased from April to December 2018 compared to the same period in 2017, partly due to China's ban on rice imports from Myanmar. European Union (EU) tariffs on rice imported from Myanmar and Cambodia threaten to exacerbate the situation. The conflict in Shan State has displaced 3,500 villagers in Namtu, Hsipaw, and Mai Pan townships. Fighting between the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), its ally the Shan State Progress Party (SSP), and the Rest Council of Shan State (RCSS) has intensified, with the SSA-S and the Pa-O National Liberation Army also involved. Shan ethnic leaders have called for an end to the conflict, which has led to the displacement of civilians and the disruption of their livelihoods. The Tatmadaw's actions in Karen State have been characterized as a form of psychological warfare, targeting civilians and intimidating them. The Tatmadaw has avoided combat with ethnic defense forces, instead focusing on displacing villagers and disrupting their harvests. The conflict in Shan State has also led to the displacement of internally displaced persons (IDPs), who are concerned about their ability to return to their homes and participate in the upcoming exams. The Committee for Shan State Unity, an organization made up of Shan ethnic political parties, local civil society organizations (CSOs), and Shan Sangha (Buddhist monks), is working to bring peace between the two EAOs. However, the groups involved in the conflict wield significant power and influence over the EAOs, making it challenging to achieve a peaceful resolution. The situation in northern Shan and other contested areas covered by the ceasefire remains uncertain, with the Tatmadaw reportedly expanding its presence in TNLA territory.