November 2018 Atmospheric Report

Under pressure from China and India, Bangladesh and Myanmar hastily crafted Rohingya repatriation plans. However, initial attempts to implement the plans failed because the necessary conditions for safe, voluntary repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Rakhine were not met, as sternly noted by UNHCR and other observers. The Joint Working Group, comprised of officials from the Government of Bangladesh and the Government of Myanmar, announced on October 30 that repatriation would commence on November 15. Both governments reached an agreement to begin repatriation with 2,261 displaced persons, who were selected from a list of 8,032 persons sent by Bangladesh and scrutinized by the Ministry of Home Affairs earlier this year. However, the UN and wider international community expressed concern over the perceived haste, with UNHCR deeming conditions in Myanmar to be non-conducive for repatriation. The Rohingya refugees themselves and the UN noted that they had not been consulted before this decision was reached. Additionally, 42 NGOs published a joint statement calling on the Governments of Bangladesh and Myanmar to stand by their commitment to ensure a safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation. The repatriation operations were ultimately postponed to the end of December, with Bangladesh stating that it wants refugees to volunteer and does not want to forcefully repatriate people. The postponement was likely due to public unrest in the IDP camps in Bangladesh, with some refugees on the list going into hiding and multiple suicide attempts being reported. China and India appear to be the instigators of the ill-prepared repatriation attempt, with China facilitating Joint Working Group meetings between Bangladesh and Myanmar and endorsing the repatriation plan. India's presence in Rakhine is also increasing, mostly through a port project in Sittwe and through the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project. The repatriation effort has been criticized for being poorly coordinated and lacking the necessary conditions for safe, voluntary repatriation. The crisis has also led to concerns about the potential for a wave of dangerous boat voyages, with more than one hundred Rohingya being found and detained on a broken-down boat off the coast of Yangon. The Rohingya crisis remains a complex and sensitive issue, with ongoing instability in Rakhine State and a lack of trust between the Government of Myanmar and the Rohingya community. The international community continues to call for a safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation of Rohingya refugees, but the necessary conditions for such a repatriation remain elusive. The conflict in Myanmar's border states continued in November, with most conflicts occurring between ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in Shan state. The Tatmadaw was involved in some of the fighting, but civilians were consistently the most affected, with dire situations in IDP camps across the country, particularly in Kachin and Shan states. The Government of Myanmar is organizing new peace talks as part of the so-called 21st Century Panglong Conference for December or early 2019, in order to meet the quota of two conferences a year. However, the state of negotiations is in flux after the KNU and RCSS temporarily suspended their participation. ASEAN members are more forcefully condemning Myanmar, although China continues to prioritize economic over humanitarian interests. The ongoing instability in Rakhine State poses a dilemma for China, which is keen to spur its Belt and Road related infrastructure investments in the region.