Energy planning component : energy conservation and resource development project, AID no. 5170144

The evaluation covered the period 9/84-8/85 and was based on document review and interviews with personnel from the National Energy Policy Commission (COENER) and other government institutions. COENER has hired intelligent, motivated staff and advisors, its analytical systems have much improved, and potential clients are enthusiastic. While there is every prospect that the project will meet its energy planning goals, some tactical changes must be introduced so that the National Energy Investment Plan being developed by COENER addresses the Dominican Republic"s difficult economic siutation, particularly the lack of foreign exchange. The plan"s criteria for evaluating energy investments are good, but its methods for setting investment priorities focus on long-term issues, neglecting the complexities of today"s economic climate. The challenge is to connect the broader view with the short-term, incremental, decisionmaking process which national leaders are forced to follow on a day-to-day basis. If this is not done, the plan will be ignored. Therefore, advisors should help COENER adopt a problemsolving approach focused on vital current questions such as fuel substitution, and they should train COENER"s young staff in policy formulation, i.e., in translating political issues into analytic designs and then translating the results of analysis back to decisionmakers. Efforts to date have focused too much on developing a formal planning methodology. COENER"s strategy of institutionalizing energy investment decisionmaking by using persuasion rather than by seeking legal power for itself seems sound (although older and more powerful agencies which operate on the same assumption have suffered a great deal of frustration). Little progress has been made in the area of pricing analysis, nor will much headway be made unless there is greater information sharing in the petroleum sector. The PRIME computer installed under the predecessor project should be replaced with less costly equipment, including more microcomputers to enable analysts to do interactive planning on urgent energy questions.