ETOP Situation Report for August with a forecast till mid-October, 2012

Small-scale breeding was reported in Mauritania and Chad. Scattered adults were observed in the summer breeding areas in Sudan and the western lowlands in Eritrea, where small-scale breeding may have been in progress. A similar situation was reported along the Indo-Pakistan border, where low numbers of adults were observed. No locusts were reported in other countries during this period. The presence of green vegetation over vast areas in northern Sahel – Niger and Mali, and to some extent Mauritania, Chad, and Sudan – will continue creating favorable conditions for a second generation breeding during September. As vegetation begins receding, locusts will form groups and small swarms and begin moving north into northern Mauritania, southern Algeria, and perhaps Libya in November. Small-scale breeding will occur in the interior of Sudan, western Eritrea, the Red Sea coasts in Yemen, and in Rajasthan, India, and the Cholistan, Pakistan. Other countries will remain calm during the forecast period. In Niger, the National Locust Control Centre continued survey operations in the north and central regions, but control operations were not reported during this period. In Mali, the ongoing insecurity situation in the northern part of the country continued undermining survey operations, but surveys were carried out in the central and western parts of the country. Efforts are also being made to obtain information from proxy sources. Surveys continued in northeastern Chad as well as southern Mauritania. Surveys must continue in all frontline countries and preventive interventions implemented to the extent possible to minimize the threats the locusts pose to crops and pastures. The Red (Nomadic) Locust (NSE) situation remained calm in all outbreak areas during August, with control operations not necessitated in Tanzania. However, NSE groups are likely to remain in patches of green vegetation that escaped burning, and breeding will commence with the onset of the rains in late October into early November 2012. Hoppers will likely form in mid-January 2013 if conditions remain favorable in the outbreak areas where significant residual parental populations exist.