ETOP Situation Report for March with a Forecast until Mid-May

Ground teams treated more than 3,660 ha in Libya and nearly 1,500 ha in Algeria during this month. Surveys and control could not be extended to other outbreak areas in these countries as well as in northern Mali and Niger due to security problems and remoteness. Small-scale breeding may still be in progress in the Air Mountains in Niger and northern Mali, but it could not be confirmed. Very few adults were detected in southern coastal areas in Sudan near the Eritrea border and in northern Oman during surveys carried out in March. The situation remained calm in other outbreak and invasion regions. Small-scale breeding is likely to continue in southwestern Libya and southeastern Algeria, where good rains were reported. Hatching will occur as the weather starts getting warmer in the coming weeks, and locust numbers will increase and form hopper groups and small bands. Swarm formations will likely begin by late May in both countries. Adult locusts will likely move from northern Niger to southeastern Algeria and augment the existing breeding populations. Small-scale breeding is likely to commence in the eastern coast of Oman and a similar situation may also occur in spring breeding areas in western coastal Pakistan and southeastern Iran during the forecast period, provided rains fall. The Red (Nomadic) Locust (NSE) situation in Tanzania and neighboring countries is a concern. Swarms of NSE escaped from Ikuu-Katavi outbreak areas in Tanzania and dispersed westward. Swarm movements may have also occurred in Wembere and North Rukwa plains and Malagarasi Basin. Adult locusts were detected in Lake Chilwa/Lake Chiuta plains between Malawi and Mozambique, and community-based monitoring teams reported low-density populations in the Buzi-Gorongoza and Dimba plains in Mozambique. Survey operations were in progress in Kafue Flats and the Lukanga swamps in Zambia at the time this update was compiled. Hopper bands and swarms will continue forming in Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. IRLCO-CSA is mobilizing resources to carry out aerial survey and control in collaboration with the MoAs in member-countries and seeking assistance from development partners. All relevant MoA personnel in Tanzania and neighboring countries are advised to remain alert and report any locust sightings to IRLCO-CSA. The locust situation in Madagascar continued to develop, with aerial interventions treating more than 2,500 ha from 14-18 March. FAO is negotiating to triangulate pesticides from West Africa to Madagascar. The team estimated the cost of the 2011-2012 locust campaign at USD 7.2 million, and so far, cash and in-kind contributions and pledges from the UN/OCHA, IFAD, AfDB, EU, UNDP, France, and the Government of Madagascar are covering roughly half the estimated needs for the campaign. The African Armyworm (AAW) situation in Tanzania is a concern, with positive trap catches recorded in several regions in March. AAW activities will likely continue in Tanzania and perhaps commence in Kenya during the forecast period. Trap operators and community forecasters are encouraged to continue monitoring trap catches and report to relevant authorities and alert farmers promptly. Quelea (QQU) bird outbreaks were reported in March in Siaya district of Kenya, in Ghaza Province Mozambique, in Kilimanjaro, Singinda, Dodoma, and Shinyanga Regions of Tanzania, and in Mashonaland Central, Manicaland, Matebeleland South, and Masvingo Provinces of Zimbabwe. QQU birds will likely become a problem to small grain crop growers in Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe during the forecast period. Vigilance is recommended. The SGR frontline countries in Sahel West Africa, namely Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger, have established autonomous national locust control units (CNLA) responsible for DL activities. Funds provided by the African Development Bank, USAID, the World Bank, France, FAO, host-governments, neighboring countries, and others enabled the FCs to equip CNLAs with necessary tools, materials, and infrastructure as well as help train staff to prevent and respond to SGR outbreaks and avoid the threats they pose to food security and livelihoods of vulnerable communities. OFDA continues its initiatives in pesticide risk reduction through stewardship network (PRRSN) programs to ensure safety of vulnerable people and protect their assets and the shared environment against pesticide pollution. OFDA is also supporting a program to strengthen national and regional capacities in Central Asia and the Caucasus (CAC) through FAO to coordinate locust monitoring, reporting, prevention, and mitigation efforts and abate the threats they pose to food security and livelihoods of vulnerable communities. Weather and ecological conditions in the region are expected to be favorable for locust breeding, with above-average rainfall expected over portions of Ethiopia, southern Tanzania, eastern Zambia,