MAURITANIA Food Security Outlook July through December 2012

Rainfall totals are reported to be normal to above-normal in approximately half of the country's rainfall gauging stations, with many areas receiving heavy rainfall in the last two dekads of July. However, the growing season is still beginning on time in all areas, and the surplus rainfall has not yet produced consistently good pastoral conditions. The only real improvement in the condition of pasture has been in rainfed farming areas, which has triggered the return migration of certain transhumant herds and overgrazing problems. The government has launched a national production plan focused on inputs and the establishment of new irrigation schemes, which aims to develop cereal cropping areas at least equal to normal year levels. However, the failure of the 2011 growing season triggered two to three times more seasonal labor migration than usual, depleting the workforce in rainfed farming areas and southern agropastoral areas. The government's annual "Retour au Terroir" program is providing free transportation for anyone wishing to go back to crop-producing areas, and the FAO has mobilized 560 metric tons of coarse grain seeds for distribution to farmers. Despite these efforts, the government's production target of planting 230,000 hectares in coarse cereal crops producing average yields seems overly high, given the current constraints. The national production forecast is for a near-average harvest at best. The locust situation remains status quo, with no major events reported, but the improvement in environmental conditions with current rainfall activity is heightening the risk of a locust invasion, particularly given reports of locust swarms in northern Mali. Market trends indicate a 10 percent rise in sorghum prices in rainfed farming areas between May and June, reflecting a common recurring phenomenon between the lean season and the harvesting period for short-cycle crops. The tightening of supplies due to restrictions on trade between Mauritania and Mali will only heighten the effects of seed demand. Cereal traders from Nouakchott are provisioning rural markets, and the current upward trend in prices is expected to climb steadily between now and the end of the planting period. The upward trend in wheat prices has gained new momentum since June in all parts of the country, driving wheat prices up by 7 percent in Boghé, 4.7 percent in Adel Bagrou, and 5.4 and 5.8 percent, respectively, on the Magta Lahjar and Tintane markets. The small reported dips in prices are due mainly to the effects of one-off distributions of free food aid or harvesting activities, reducing demand for commercial wheat supplies. These rising prices should not affect the short-term access of very poor and poor households to this commodity as long as village-level food security reserve programs and government-subsidized shops stocked with wheat are available. The government's production target for irrigated farming activities, which is 35,000 hectares under crops compared with 31,063 hectares last year, appears much more attainable. The national production forecast is for a near-average harvest at best. The locust situation remains status quo, with no major events reported, but the improvement in environmental conditions with current rainfall activity is heightening the risk of a locust invasion, particularly given reports of locust swarms in northern Mali. The World Bank is ready to provide US$4 to $5 million in aid to Chad, Mali, Algeria, and Mauritania, the four front-line countries in the locust control campaign. Surveillance teams have been deployed in all at-risk areas, and arrangements have been made to provide decision-makers with a regular flow of information. The FAO has mobilized 560 metric tons of coarse grain seeds for distribution to farmers, and the government's annual "Retour au Terroir" program is providing free transportation for anyone wishing to go back to crop-producing areas. The food security outlook for July through December 2012 is generally positive, with food insecurity levels expected to decrease between July and September if current assistance levels are sustained. However, food security among pastoral-dominant populations in agropastoral areas is still unstable, with livestock assistance programs falling short of needs. The earlier than usual onset of seasonal rains has already enabled a general startup of agricultural activities, and the government has launched a national production plan focused on inputs and the establishment of new irrigation schemes.