Report on the Reviewed National Family Planning Commodities Forecast and Quantification for the Years 2011/12 to 2013/14

A new exercise was scheduled for January 2012 to revise the assumptions of that forecast and develop a supply plan to guide the procurement of products. A population-based forecast was prepared from the data collected based on three different scenarios: high, low, and middle/intermediate. However, a consumption-based forecast could not be conducted due to limited availability of reliable consumption data at the time. The estimated cost of the forecast quantities was based on the middle scenario, which was selected as the most reasonable situation, totaling $50.3 million for the three-year period. The supply plan for the three-year period consists of procurement quantities that total $42.9 million, with $14.8 million for procurements until June 2012, $10.9 million for the period from July 2012 until June 2013, and $17.2 million for the period from July 2013 until June 2014. The lower cost of the supply plan is due to the stocks on hand and the shipments that are already on transit. Kenya has been actively pursuing a program to increase the access of modern contraceptive methods among the population of sexually active citizens. The goal of the program was to increase the current use of modern contraception methods by all sexually active women from 44.6% to a value higher than 56% for the fiscal year 2014/2015. To increase the coverage of the population that is estimated to access the family planning services through the public sector, the DRH developed a forecast of commodities in July 2011 that would cover the next 3 years. The forecast quantified the estimated need based on population-based data but did not have a clear supply plan that could guide the program for procurements. The DRH and MSH-HSCM project conducted a workshop in January 2012 to revise the assumptions of the forecast and develop a supply plan to guide the procurement of products. The team made several recommendations regarding the quantification of family planning commodities, including monthly monitoring of the supply plan, review of the supply plan every quarter, and collection of additional consumption data to enable a comparison forecast to be developed yearly. The estimated cost of the forecast quantities was based on the middle scenario, which was selected as the most reasonable situation, totaling $50.3 million for the three-year period. The supply plan for the three-year period consists of procurement quantities that total $42.9 million, with $14.8 million for procurements until June 2012, $10.9 million for the period from July 2012 until June 2013, and $17.2 million for the period from July 2013 until June 2014. The team made several recommendations regarding the quantification of family planning commodities, including monthly monitoring of the supply plan, review of the supply plan every quarter, and collection of additional consumption data to enable a comparison forecast to be developed yearly. The team also recommended that resources be mobilized for all shipments that are planned but unfunded in the current supply plan.