SARS-CoV-2 Wave Two Surveillance in East Asia and the Pacific: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. The second wave of the pandemic has reached East Asia and the Pacific, necessitating additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance to track recent shifts, rates of increase, and persistence associated with the pandemic. A longitudinal trend analysis study was conducted to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission in the East Asia and Pacific region. The study extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries and used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables. The study employed a dynamic panel model estimated using the generalized method of moments approach, implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. The results of the study indicate that Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar had the largest new caseloads, with 4301, 2588, and 1387 new cases, respectively. When examining the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates of 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000, respectively. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk, with rates of 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively. The study's findings suggest that two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region, and their rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk may result in explosive growth. The Philippines, in particular, is of greatest concern, as it has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic and ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks, resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The study's results highlight the importance of continued surveillance and monitoring of COVID-19 transmission in the East Asia and Pacific region. The findings also underscore the need for countries in the region to be cautious about reopening their economies and societies, as outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of the pandemic. The study's advanced surveillance metrics provide valuable insights for health policy makers and public health officials to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed.