Theory of Change & Results Framework for Power Africa Senior Advisors Group Programme

Government and the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) to support and advise the political leadership of select Power Africa countries in navigating the challenges of power sector reforms. The programme was launched in 2013 by the U.S. Government to achieve two ambitious targets: to increase installed power capacity by 30,000 MW and to create 60 million new connections across sub-Saharan Africa by 2030. The programme's overarching goal is to strengthen the enabling environment of the power sector and build effective sector governance that attracts and accelerates private investment into the sector, enabling increased power generation and accessibility. To achieve this goal, the programme focuses on four intermediate outcomes: strong, clear, and transparent legal and regulatory frameworks and procurement processes; integrated power sector planning prioritizing optimal energy mix and expanding access; a functioning financial ecosystem enabling companies to invest in power generation and expansion projects; and strong, regional institutions facilitating and enhancing cross-border electricity trade and regional integration. The programme's approach is guided by a Theory of Change model, which outlines the activities and inputs required to achieve the intermediate outcomes. The model consists of four levels: Goal, Intermediate Outcomes, Activities, and Inputs. Level 1 specifies the overarching goal of the programme, while Level 2 focuses on the intermediate outcomes that contribute to achieving the desired goal. Level 3 outlines the type of activities that will lead to the intermediate outcomes, including governance challenges analysis, key decision-maker engagement, and politically feasible pathway development. Level 4 focuses on the types of resources required to undertake the activities, including Resident Advisors working closely with key Government officials and their teams to support positive change and enhance Government capacity. The programme's results management mechanism is guided by the Performance Monitoring and Management Plan (PMP), which outlines the approach taken to track and evaluate the progress, results, and impact of the programme. The PMP builds on four key components: AGI's Theory of Change, results frameworks, stories of change, and annual independent external evaluations. The programme's results management practice mainly relies on annual work plans, developed in close consultation with USAID, and annual and quarterly reports submitted to the AOR. The programme's strategy and results management approach are consolidated and articulated in this document, which complements the PMP and puts forward alternative measuring and learning mechanisms to replace some of the approaches suggested in the PMP. The document is divided into three sub-sections: Theory of Change, Results Framework, and Measuring and Learning Components. The Theory of Change model is a dynamic model that needs to be refined over time as the in-country and regional contexts, and programme's approach to these contexts change. The programme's Work Plan outlines the approach taken to track and evaluate the progress, results, and impact of the programme. The Work Plan is developed in close consultation with USAID and outlines the programme's objectives, activities, and inputs. The programme's results management practice mainly relies on annual work plans, developed in close consultation with USAID, and annual and quarterly reports submitted to the AOR. The programme's results framework outlines the intermediate outcomes that contribute to achieving the desired goal. The framework consists of four intermediate outcomes: strong, clear, and transparent legal and regulatory frameworks and procurement processes; integrated power sector planning prioritizing optimal energy mix and expanding access; a functioning financial ecosystem enabling companies to invest in power generation and expansion projects; and strong, regional institutions facilitating and enhancing cross-border electricity trade and regional integration. The programme's measuring and learning components include annual work plans, annual and quarterly reports, data collection, and contribution to Power Africa-wide indicators. The programme's results management practice mainly relies on annual work plans, developed in close consultation with USAID, and annual and quarterly reports submitted to the AOR. The programme's results management mechanism is guided by the Performance Monitoring and Management Plan (PMP), which outlines the approach taken to track and evaluate the progress, results, and impact of the programme.