Fragility and Climate Risks in Colombia

The state's effective political institutions, well-developed social service delivery systems, and strong regulatory foundation for economic policy position it to continue making important progress. However, the historically high level of violence and accompanying population displacements continue to create risks for Colombians, including in areas that also face high climate risks. Today, nearly 2 million people live in high climate exposure areas, with more than 1 million residing in very high climate exposure areas concentrated in less than 1 percent of the country's territory along the coast. Colombia's high exposure areas include low-lying coastal zones, particularly around the cities of Barranquilla and Cartagena, where populations face storm surges, flash floods, and chronic aridity. Coastal and inland areas of Chocó, Antioquia, and Córdoba departments are susceptible to decreased rainfall, riverine flooding, and coastal inundation stretching far inland along river deltas. Pockets of high exposure in Putumayo department in the south experience riverine flooding and decreased rainfall. Colombia experiences high overall fragility compared to other countries globally, and in recent years, it has experienced the greatest fragility of all countries in South America. Unlike most other countries with high compound fragility-climate risks, Colombia's fragility stems primarily from poor state effectiveness, particularly in the security and economic spheres. However, Colombia benefits from strong political and social institutions. The peace process has already had a marked impact on armed conflict in the country, reducing the number of civilian and combatant deaths to their lowest levels in more than 50 years. De-escalation between government forces and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia/Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) starting in 2015 has paved the way for landmark reductions in armed conflict and former combatants' participation in the political process. However, political violence has risen in the intervening years as illegal armed groups vie for influence over land and resources formerly controlled by the FARC. Increased state presence in rural, conflict-affected areas can help counter this issue, and many social leaders and activists have targeted work in these areas to promote licit economies and coca-substitution. The convergence of climate risks and government mismanagement of those risks, as well as state deficiencies in addressing the conflict and displacement that put more people in harm's way, combined to make the April 2017 flood in Mocoa one of Colombia's worst disasters on record. A similar confluence of fragility and climate risks is seen in the routine flash flooding that besets the country's largest coastal city, Barranquilla. It faces substantial flooding risks from storm surges and riverine flooding, which is made worse by limited government planning and responses to address these risks. Colombia's high exposure areas are concentrated in less than 1 percent of the country's territory along the coast, with low-lying coastal zones, particularly around the cities of Barranquilla and Cartagena, facing storm surges, flash floods, and chronic aridity. Coastal and inland areas of Chocó, Antioquia, and Córdoba departments are susceptible to decreased rainfall, riverine flooding, and coastal inundation stretching far inland along river deltas. Pockets of high exposure in Putumayo department in the south experience riverine flooding and decreased rainfall.