Preventing/Countering Violent Extremism Monitoring, Evaluation, & Learning (MEL): Methodology

As part of this effort, the Alliance for Peacebuilding (AfP) carried out a scoping and synthesis of indicators and relevant forms of measurement for preventing/countering violent extremism (P/CVE) programming. The research aimed to better understand the current state of measurement with regards to three primary P/CVE programming responses: prevention (PV), containment/interdiction (CI), and disengagement, deradicalization, rehabilitation, and reintegration (DDRR). Violent extremism (VE) stands as one of the most significant security threats facing the international community, with the frequency of violent acts and atrocities perpetrated by extremists escalating across the world. Despite the threats and known impacts of VE, universal agreement on how to define, discuss, and respond to it remains elusive. Over the past 20 years, the peacebuilding field has advanced its understanding of the drivers of VE, recognizing that radicalization is a fluid, nonlinear, highly individualized process. However, designing indicators and measuring change in P/CVE interventions is inherently complex due to its multifaceted nature. These programs operate within intricate socio-political landscapes, making direct attribution of outcomes to specific interventions challenging. While quantitative indicators might offer clarity, they often miss nuanced changes better captured by qualitative measures. Establishing accurate baselines is also problematic, especially where data on VE is limited or unreliable. The fluidity of definitional boundaries in VE and its actual manifestation, combined with varying perceptions of success among stakeholders, further complicates consistent indicator development. Moreover, data collection poses many difficulties, including both sensitivity and security risks, and there is a persistent tension between achieving measurable outcomes and making genuine, albeit less tangible, impacts. Developing and maintaining appropriate sampling frames, particularly with populations in flux, poses considerable difficulties when attempting to conduct longitudinal studies and establish more rigorous evidence. As such, creating universally accepted and effective indicators for P/CVE requires a nuanced, adaptable approach that respects the diverse and evolving contexts in which these programs operate. The research employed a scoping and synthesis methodology, which involved a comprehensive review of existing literature and data sources to identify relevant indicators and measures for P/CVE programming. The methodology consisted of several key components, including resource scraping and eligibility, indicator scraping, type of change analysis, level analysis and validity of measurement, and thematic analysis and synthesis. The research aimed to address the deficiencies in P/CVE measurement by providing a nuanced and adaptable approach to indicator development. By better understanding the current state of measurement with regards to P/CVE programming responses, the research aimed to inform the development of effective indicators and measures that can be used to evaluate the impact of P/CVE interventions. The research identified several key challenges in P/CVE measurement, including the complexity of the multifaceted nature of P/CVE, the fluidity of definitional boundaries in VE, and the difficulties in establishing accurate baselines. The research also highlighted the need for a nuanced and adaptable approach to indicator development that respects the diverse and evolving contexts in which P/CVE programs operate. The research provided several recommendations for improving P/CVE measurement, including the development of universally accepted and effective indicators, the use of a nuanced and adaptable approach to indicator development, and the establishment of accurate baselines. The research also emphasized the need for a persistent tension between achieving measurable outcomes and making genuine, albeit less tangible, impacts. Overall, the research aimed to contribute to the development of effective indicators and measures for P/CVE programming, and to inform the development of evidence-based approaches to preventing and countering violent extremism.