SOMALIA Rain Watch

The purpose of this document is to facilitate contingency and response planning by providing updated information on the Gu season. The Somalia Rain Watch is produced in collaboration with various agencies, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, and the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM). The March to June Gu 2013 rains were largely near-normal to normal in most parts of the country. However, earlier than normal Gu 2013 rains started in late March in most parts of the country. Rainfall performance was largely near-normal to normal in terms of amount, duration, and spatial coverage in most parts of the country, excluding most of Bari and parts of Sanag, Galgadud, Hiran, Bakol, and Gedo Regions. In the Northwest, most of Guban Pastoral livelihood zone received above normal to heavy, sporadic rains from March through the first ten days of May, which is an atypical pattern for this time of the year. In the Northeast, the rainfall performance in pastoral areas has been fairly average and well distributed, including in the Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone, which is experiencing a second season of recovery following several successive seasons of far below average rainfall. However, the Nugal Valley Pastoral livelihood zone in Nugal Region had relatively poor rains since the start of the season in late March, resulting in both pasture and water conditions being largely below normal. In the central regions, despite the long dry spell from May 11 to 31, the March to May Gu 2013 rainfall in most of the Hawd, Addun Pastoral livelihood zone, and some parts of the cowpea-growing areas in Central Agropastoral livelihood zone had near normal to normal total rainfall but with poor coverage and frequency. In the South, most of the regions received fairly distributed, average to good total rains according to field reports and satellite-based rainfall estimates from March to May 2013. Rains were favorable in most riverine, pastoral, and agropastoral livelihood zones, resulting in improved pasture, browse, and water conditions, especially in the rainfed agropastoral and the pastoral areas in the South. These rains have also improved the performance of maize, sorghum, cowpea, and sesame crops. However, exceptions to the generally positive trends are found in the rainfed, agropastoral areas of Hiran Region, parts of Bakol, and northern Gedo Region, where due to the long dry spell in May and inadequate total rainfall, crop development was poor with some crops wilted and others unlikely to be useable for anything other than fodder. The recent dry spell and the early cessation of the Gu rains have affected rangeland and water resources in these rain-deficit areas. In Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba Regions, Hagaa rains in early to mid-June reversed the deterioration in rangeland vegetation conditions, which improved pasture and browse availability. Only some coastal areas are likely to receive rain over the next week.