USAID/UGANDA LEARNING ACTIVITY: IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON LEARNING: SCOPING ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR UGANDA'S EDUCATION SECTOR

Approximately 15 million learners are estimated to have missed school, and about 30 percent are projected to likely never return to school. The learning disruption also exacerbated other risk factors like teenage pregnancy, child marriage, and labor. The quality of education declined with many teachers opting for alternative and more profitable economic activities. The learning disruption has had a significant impact on education outcomes in Uganda. Primary enrollment and survival, transition to secondary, and graduation rates have significantly dropped. This, in turn, affects Uganda's long-term educational attainment levels and the overall stock of education in the country. The COVID-19 pandemic has uncovered the fault lines in the country's education system, and policymakers have the opportunity to make transformative changes to improve education and promote socio-economic prosperity in the country. The report analyzes the extent of COVID-19 related learning disruptions to the education system out to 2050. It uses the International Futures (IFs) modeling platform, which integrates human, social, and physical development systems in twelve sub-models. The education sub-model forecasts enrollment, financing, and attainment of education by gender and age-cohort. The report adjusts the Current Path to account for the negative impact of the pandemic on primary and secondary enrollment, participation, transition, and graduation rates in 2020 and 2021 and a rebound in 2022 following the reopening of schools. The report explores two alternative scenarios to illustrate the stakes of policy (in)action today. The first alternative scenario, Education Improvement, models a positive policy intervention to recover from the shock of the pandemic. The second alternative scenario, Education Slump, models a future in which inadequate policy response neglects the sector and jeopardizes the country's long-term goals and prospects. The scenarios illustrate the crossroads at which Uganda's education system finds itself, and policymakers have the opportunity to make transformative changes to improve education and promote socio-economic prosperity in the country. The report presents several key findings, including a decline in primary enrollment and survival, transition to secondary, and graduation rates. The report also presents several figures, including gross enrollment rates by grade projected out to 2050 in the No COVID and Current Path scenarios, gross lower secondary enrollment projected out to 2050 in the Current Path and No COVID scenario, and adult completion rates projected out to 2050 in the Education Improvement scenario and other scenarios. The report concludes that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on education outcomes in Uganda, and policymakers have the opportunity to make transformative changes to improve education and promote socio-economic prosperity in the country. The report recommends that policymakers take a proactive approach to address the challenges facing the education sector and invest in education to promote socio-economic prosperity in the country.