Violent Extremism and Insurgency in Kyrgyzstan: A Risk Assessment

The country's complex history of political and ethnic violence, coupled with its weak state, creates an environment conducive to the emergence of extremist groups. Ninety-one percent of Kyrgyzstani citizens self-identify as Muslims, but there is vast variance in their religious practices, with many viewing their relationship to Islam as more cultural than spiritual. The country's history of political and ethnic violence is marked by violent acts committed in connection with two successive regime changes and a serious outbreak of ethnic violence in June 2010 between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. These events suggest that people in Kyrgyzstan are capable of using violence for political means and that violence is becoming a more frequent occurrence in society. The mobilization of people based on their involvement in locally based patron-client networks has been a significant factor in these events, and this phenomenon is troubling as it suggests that there is precedent for group-level drivers of violent extremism to be deployed by interested parties. The Kyrgyzstan state is weak, and in the few cases when the state has had to deal with violent extremism since the 1990s, it has not demonstrated that it is capable of doing so. The central state is unable to exert its legitimacy in the south of the country, which is controlled by local politicians who are not sympathetic to the central government. The present government is in the process of undertaking democratic reforms, and its emerging political system may help to establish more stability and state strength over the long-term. Substantial grievances among the population of the country, especially regarding corruption and social justice, have fueled the growth of nationalism among ethnic Kyrgyz who believe that the state has not fulfilled its promises and that non-Kyrgyz are taking resources from Kyrgyz. This nationalism has been mobilized aggressively through patron-client networks, suggesting that it could become a source of political violence in the future. The current risk of violent extremism and insurgency in Kyrgyzstan is low, but the potential for nationalist or extremist violence remains a significant concern. The largest threat of violent extremism and insurgency in Kyrgyzstan is likely the growing ethnic Kyrgyz nationalism in the country. Although only a minority of ethnic Kyrgyz in the country has embraced this nationalism, that minority has been quite vocal and aggressive. Nationalism was certainly a driver of the ethnic violence that hit the country in June 2010, and it remains a significant factor in the country's current security landscape. The country's transition to democracy is quite tenuous, and it remains to be seen whether the country can successfully consolidate its present system into a sustainable democracy. The country's present political parties are mostly based on patron-client networks rather than on policy platforms and distinctive visions for Kyrgyzstan's future. The lack of a strong tendency towards political Islam in the country and the absence of a substantial constituency for extremist Islamic ideologies reduce the risk of violent extremism and insurgency in Kyrgyzstan. However, the potential for exploiting patron-client networks and the growing ethnic Kyrgyz nationalism in the country create a significant risk of violent extremism and insurgency in the future. The emergent democratic system in Kyrgyzstan today has reduced political repression and control of information significantly over past regimes in the country, but it remains to be seen whether this system can provide the necessary stability and security to prevent the emergence of extremist groups.