Disrupting System Dynamics: A Framework for Understanding Systemic Changes

This theory is based on the understanding that systems are groups of agents that interact with each other, producing emergent patterns of collective behavior. Systems are dynamic, constantly changing as agents are constantly acting, producing emergent patterns that in turn influence individual behaviors in a never-ending feedback loop. The process of developing systemic change is complex and challenging to measure. Existing frameworks and indicators used for measuring systemic change have been found to be inadequate. This paper presents a framework, illustrated in Figure 1, that outlines a pathway for systemic change and presents a complementary set of indicator areas, or 'domains', that signal systemic changes. The Disrupting System Dynamics Framework incorporates dynamism by describing a process of ongoing evolution in market systems, which are constantly changing. It provides guidance on understanding the significance of observed systemic changes in terms of their depth (particularly in norms and networks) and their strength (with respect to their scale, buy-in, and relevance). The framework expands the range of indicators that provide information about systemic changes, partly by looking at the interactions of agents in systems, in addition to the agents themselves. The framework builds on MarketShare Associates' work on evaluating systemic change in private sector development and incorporates inputs from expert MSD practitioners. It is complementary to the Local Systems Framework, which introduces five R's to understand systems and systemic change: Resources, Roles, Relationships, Rules, and Results. The Disrupting System Dynamics Framework provides a set of guidelines for understanding significant systemic changes, including characteristics of deeper systemic changes, particularly shifts in norms and networks. A system is a group of agents that interact with each other, producing emergent patterns of collective behavior. The framework identifies two levels at which indications of systemic change can be observed: behavior changes and characteristics of individual agents, and collective shifts in interactions between individual agents. Systems are constantly changing in both positive and negative ways, and for the purposes of market systems development, positive systemic changes result in more sustainable, inclusive benefits to agents in the system. The framework presents a set of domains of indicators to understand systemic change in MSD programming. These domains include indicators that provide information about the depth and strength of systemic changes, as well as indicators that signal the presence of systemic changes. The framework is intended to be used by those working on and funding initiatives that want to create systemic change, as well as evaluators wanting to assess how well initiatives have contributed to systemic change. The process of developing this paper involved a review of published indicators of systemic change, systems literature, and interviews with key practitioners who are attempting to facilitate and measure systemic change. The framework was presented at several conferences and seminars, and further inputs were sought from expert MSD practitioners. The framework is intended to be a useful tool for understanding and measuring systemic change in market systems development.